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Special Correspondent: Narendra Modi's visit to Israel last month was not a routine
diplomatic stop. It was a deliberate embrace of Benjamin Netanyahu, staged with
parades, embraces and a speech in the Knesset. Within days, Israel and the US
launched strikes on Iran, which responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Oil
prices spiked, Gulf capitals braced for instability, and the region slid deeper
into war. Modi's choice to stand firmly with Israel now looks less like a
strategic masterstroke and more like a reckless gamble.India once prided itself on balancing ties across West Asia.
Israel was a partner for defence and technology, the Gulf for energy and trade,
Iran for connectivity. This balancing act allowed Delhi to maintain generally
good relations with all sides. Modi's embrace of Israel has shattered that
balance. In a region where visibility equals policy, India is now seen as part
of the same security architecture that shields Israel while Gaza burns and
Iranian cities are bombed. The risks are not abstract. India's diaspora in the
Gulf — over 6.8 million people — faces growing vulnerability. Remittances worth
$129 billion in 2024 could be jeopardised if migrant workers find themselves in
the crosshairs of public anger.Economically, India is already paying the price. The closure
of Hormuz threatens its energy security, while the Chabahar port project in
Iran now looks doomed. For years, Washington pressed India to cut Russian oil
imports, narrowing Delhi's options further. Yet in a surprising twist, the US
has now allowed India to resume buying Russian oil in order to bring global
prices down. This waiver is not a gift. It is a reflection of Washington's own
vulnerability in a war that has disrupted energy markets. India may benefit in
the short term by diversifying supplies, but the larger picture remains grim:
Delhi's dependence on US goodwill exposes its lack of strategic autonomy.This contradiction is striking. On one hand, Modi has
aligned India with Israel and the US, sacrificing ties with Iran and
complicating relations with the Arab world. On the other, India is being asked
to buy Russian oil to stabilise markets — a reminder that even Washington
cannot fully control the fallout of this war. Modi's gamble has tied India to
Western priorities while leaving it exposed to the volatility of a region on
fire.The war has also inflamed public opinion across the Arab
world. Debates about a "Greater Israel," once fringe, have entered
mainstream discourse, with Israeli leaders and US officials invoking biblical
geography and expansionist claims. In this climate, India's movement toward Tel
Aviv may be read as legitimising ambitions that destabilise the region further.
India's gamble also raises questions about its domestic
politics. Modi's government has often used foreign policy spectacles to bolster
nationalist sentiment at home. The Israel visit was presented as proof of
India's rising global stature. Yet the costs of this alignment will be felt
most acutely by ordinary Indians — through higher fuel prices, disrupted
remittances and the vulnerability of migrant workers.