|| Md. Mukhlesur Rahman: The recent conflicts in the Middle East are signaling major changes in the normal course of the global economy. In particular, the growing security risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have reminded the world once again that, despite the increasing role of technology and the interconnectedness of modern economies, a significant part of global economic activity still depends on a few critical maritime routes. When any one of these routes remains exposed to security risks for an indefinite period, the consequences no longer remain regional; they quickly spread across energy markets, transportation, trade, production, and inflation.The importance of the Strait of Hormuz is primarily linked to global energy supplies. It is one of the world’s most important routes for the transportation of oil and gas. Any disruption or instability in this waterway therefore creates uncertainty in international energy markets. Oil prices rise, while transportation costs, electricity-generation costs, industrial input costs, and agricultural production expenses also tend to increase. Ultimately, the adverse effects are felt in the daily lives of ordinary people.A particular feature of the Strait of Hormuz is that its effective alternatives are extremely limited. Although some countries have pipelines or other routes that can provide partial alternatives for transporting energy, completely replacing the enormous volume of maritime trade that passes through Hormuz is not merely difficult—it is virtually impossible. Therefore, if a prolonged crisis develops in this waterway, uncertainty over global energy supplies is inevitable.The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, on the other hand, is critically important for global merchandise transportation. Connected to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Suez Canal, it is one of the major maritime corridors linking Asia and Europe. If security risks force vessels to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, voyages become significantly longer, fuel consumption increases, and delivery times are extended. Additional insurance and security costs are also incurred.In other words, instability in Hormuz primarily puts pressure on energy supplies, while disruption in Bab el-Mandeb makes global supply chains more expensive and slower. If the two crises persist simultaneously, their impact on the global economy can become considerably deeper and more widespread.The Vulnerability of Global Supply ChainsOver the past several decades, the global economy has pursued maximum efficiency in production and trade. The “just-in-time” model has emphasized maintaining low inventories and ensuring rapid delivery. Although this approach has helped reduce production costs, it has also made global supply chains more vulnerable.The COVID-19 pandemic, wars, natural disasters, and maritime security crises have demonstrated that obtaining goods at the lowest possible cost is not enough. The ability to maintain uninterrupted supplies during times of crisis is equally important.Against this backdrop, major economies are placing greater emphasis on diversifying sources of supply, increasing strategic reserves, and developing alternative trade routes. In other words, in the new phase of globalization, economic resilience is becoming as important as efficiency in economic policymaking.A New Risk of InflationWhen energy and transportation costs rise, it is natural for new inflationary pressures to emerge. Energy is not merely a commodity consumed directly by households; it is a fundamental input into almost every productive and transportation activity in an economy.Similarly, when maritime routes become longer, the cost of imported goods increases. From industrial raw materials to food products, the impact can be felt across a wide range of sectors. Import-dependent economies are particularly vulnerable to such shocks.Another major concern is food security. Rising energy and transportation costs can also affect agricultural production. If the costs of fertilizer production, irrigation, agricultural machinery, and transportation of farm products increase, the effects will inevitably be reflected in food markets.What Lessons Does This Hold for Bangladesh?For an import-dependent economy like Bangladesh, the current situation is a particularly important warning. If international energy prices and transportation costs rise, the impact could be felt through higher import costs, increased demand for foreign currency, and greater inflationary pressure. Imports of industrial raw materials and capital machinery could also become more expensive.Therefore, Bangladesh cannot afford to view the current situation merely as an international crisis. The country needs to prepare in advance to mitigate its potential economic consequences.First, sources of energy imports must be diversified. Second, the capacity for maintaining strategic energy reserves should be strengthened. Third, effective initiatives must be undertaken to explore and increase domestic gas production. Fourth, the use of renewable energy must be expanded. Fifth, Bangladesh should strengthen its capacity to use alternative supply routes and ports if international trade routes are disrupted or substantially altered.Most importantly, foreign-exchange management must become more prudent and strategic. If global energy and transportation costs rise, pressure on import payments will increase. It is therefore essential to control unnecessary imports, diversify exports, and strengthen the flow of remittances.Geopolitics Is Now Also an Economic IssueThe developments surrounding Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb have highlighted another important reality: the distance between economics and geopolitics is becoming increasingly narrow.A regional conflict can now affect energy prices, transportation costs, and inflation in countries thousands of miles away. The security of a single maritime route can influence the prices of commodities in global markets. Therefore, economic security can no longer be confined to budgets, banking systems, or monetary policy.Energy security, food security, maritime security, foreign-exchange stability, and the resilience of supply chains must all be viewed as integral components of broader economic security.Long-Term Lessons from the CrisisWhen the instability surrounding Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb will fully subside depends largely on the evolving geopolitical situation. However, even after the immediate crisis ends, its economic consequences are likely to persist for some time.The global economy is being forced to recognize once again that the cheapest supply chain is not necessarily the safest one. Excessive dependence on a single source or a single trade route may reduce costs during normal times, but the price of such dependence can become extremely high during a crisis.Therefore, future economic planning must place greater emphasis on alternative sources of supply, strategic reserves, regional cooperation, and diversified trade routes. Bangladesh, too, must adapt rapidly to this emerging reality.Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are not merely two maritime passages; they are critical pressure points of the global economy. The instability in these waterways has demonstrated how vulnerable and interconnected the global economic system remains.The world may eventually return to a more normal economic trajectory. But it is highly unlikely that this “normal” will be exactly the same as before. Future economic policymaking must therefore focus not only on lower costs but also on secure supply; not only on efficiency but also on resilience; and not only on immediate gains but also on long-term economic security.Md. Mukhlesur RahmanEconomist, Geopolitical Analyst, Social and Political Thinker, and Human Rights Activist