MM Rahmatullah: The world’s already strained oil market is facing a fresh threat after Saudi Arabia’s major east-west oil pipeline was forced to shut down following drone attacks, raising concerns that global oil supplies could fall sharply if the pipeline is not repaired within days.Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, uses the pipeline to transport about 4 million barrels of crude oil a day from its oil-producing region in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. That amount is roughly 4 per cent of global oil supply.Saudi oil buyers and traders have warned that the country could run out of readily available stocks for export if the pipeline remains out of operation for too long. Industry sources familiar with Saudi exports estimate that Yanbu has enough stored oil to maintain exports for only five to seven days.The outage comes at a particularly difficult time for the global energy market. Oil supplies have already been disrupted by the war in the Middle East, while shipments through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz have fallen dramatically.Saudi authorities have not publicly provided detailed information about the damage to the pipeline or given a firm timetable for its reopening.Industry sources cited by Reuters gave different assessments of the repair work. One source estimated that repairing the damage could take five to six weeks, while another said the pipeline might be repaired sooner and could resume pumping at least partially while work continues.The Saudi government’s media office and Energy Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.The pipeline runs across the Arabian Peninsula and has become particularly important during the current regional crisis. For the past six months, it has allowed Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and move crude oil directly to the Red Sea.Without the pipeline, Saudi Arabia would have to depend more heavily on alternative routes and existing storage facilities to meet its export commitments.Yanbu has an estimated oil storage capacity of about 35 million barrels, although industry sources say the tanks are not full.Saudi Arabia can also use storage facilities at Egypt’s Ain Sukhna port on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. These facilities are estimated to hold about 18 million barrels and 20 million barrels, respectively.However, industry sources warn that these stocks too will eventually run out if the east-west pipeline does not resume operations.This means that a prolonged shutdown could have consequences far beyond Saudi Arabia. A sustained loss of millions of barrels of daily exports could tighten the international oil market and push prices higher.Saudi Arabia’s oil industry was already experiencing a major decline in output before the latest pipeline attack.According to data Saudi Arabia reported to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), its oil production fell to about 6.2 million barrels per day in August, compared with 10.9 million barrels per day in February, before the war began.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also warned of a major decline in global oil supply. The agency estimated that worldwide oil supply could fall by around 5.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to approximately 6 per cent of global supply.The combination of falling production, disrupted shipping routes and the latest pipeline outage has therefore increased fears of a deeper global energy shortage.The crisis has also severely affected the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil shipping routes in the world.Before the war, Middle Eastern countries supplied around 22 million barrels of oil per day to international markets. Under normal circumstances, a large share of that oil would pass through the Strait of Hormuz.But industry sources now estimate that oil flows through the waterway have dropped to only around 6 million to 9 million barrels per day.The decline is significant because the Strait connects the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf with international markets. Any prolonged disruption there can quickly affect oil prices, transportation costs and inflation around the world.Higher oil prices do not affect only motorists or fuel companies. Crude oil is a basic input for transport, electricity generation, industries and many consumer products.If global oil supplies fall substantially, countries that depend heavily on imported fuel could face higher import bills. Airlines, shipping companies, factories and transport operators could see their costs rise. Those higher costs can eventually reach consumers through increased prices for food, clothing, transport and other goods.For developing economies such as Bangladesh, a prolonged rise in international oil prices could be particularly challenging. Bangladesh imports a large share of the fuel it needs, meaning a sustained increase in global crude and refined-fuel prices can put pressure on the country’s import bill, foreign-exchange reserves, transport costs and inflation.The Saudi pipeline attack is also occurring alongside continuing security concerns around the Red Sea.Houthi fighters in Yemen, who have previously threatened Saudi oil shipments, reportedly seized an island at the mouth of the Red Sea on Friday.The development adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile regional energy network.For Saudi Arabia, the east-west pipeline was designed precisely to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Its shutdown therefore removes one of the kingdom’s most important alternative routes for exporting crude.The immediate question for the global oil market is how quickly Saudi Arabia can restore the pipeline.If pumping resumes soon, Saudi Arabia may be able to manage the disruption by using stored crude and alternative export routes. But if repairs take several weeks and stored supplies begin to run out, millions of barrels of daily exports could be placed at risk.That could further tighten the global oil market, potentially driving prices higher and increasing inflationary pressure worldwide.For countries like Bangladesh, the developments in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East are therefore not distant geopolitical events. A prolonged disruption to global oil supplies could eventually be felt through higher fuel prices, increased transportation costs, more expensive imported goods and additional pressure on the economy. The coming days will be crucial. The faster Saudi Arabia restores the east-west pipeline, the greater the chance of preventing the latest disruption from developing into a much larger global energy crisis.